AKA William

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Regular New Yorkers seem to have a leg up on their Senators.

A new Quinnipiac poll finds 46 percent favor legalizing same-sex marriage, and 46 percent are opposed. Split right down the middle, with a 2-point margin of error. If the New York State Senators were equally split, with the same margin of error, we’d be in good shape. The bill could pass the Senate with a 32-30.

But that’s not the case. Sure the Assembly just passed the gay marriage bill 89-52, but Nate Silver thinks getting to 32 votes is going to be less than easy.

The chart above illustrates the explanation below:

The most plausible path to 32 votes involves picking up the 20 definite yes votes, plus the 5 Democrats and 7 Republicans that we characterize as truly undecided or leaning yes. Although a clean sweep of these votes would seem unlikely, there are some backup options in the form of 1 Democrat and 4 Republicans who we describe as leaning — but not definitively — against the bill.

Democrats may take some solace in the fact that, when gay marriage bills were approved by legislatures in states like Maine and Vermont, they tended to pass with slightly more votes than anticipated. Still, based on the most recently available information, I would guess that their odds of securing 32 votes are not better than about one in three.

A one in three shot. Could be worse. Certainly could be better.