Although taking into account a number of conflicting new polls that indicate Maine’s Question 1 will pass and fail, Nate Silver is sticking behind his original prediction. Today Silver writes that Maine marriage equality will be upheld:
The Odds: A statistical analysis I conducted last month, which was based on the results from previous gay marriage referenda in other states, gave the Yes on 1 side just an 11 percent chance of prevailing, although the fraction rises to 32 percent after an ad-hoc adjustment for the fact that this is an off-year election. In spite of the PPP poll, I’m not especially persuaded to deviate substantially from those numbers: the polling average still favors the ‘No’ side, albeit narrowly; the ‘No’ side seems to have run the superior campaign, and the cellphone issue may be worth a point or two. The tight polling, certainly, should keep everybody on their toes, and gay marriage could quite easily be overturned. But I’d still put the Yes on 1 side as about a 5-to-2 underdog.
Maine’s Gov. Baldacci is also optimistic, saying, “I believe it’s something in the water or the air in this state that recognizes individual rights and anti-discrimination attitudes.”
Rex Wockner is in Maine, covering the “No On 1″ campaign from the inside.
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